What Will Independent Garages Look Like in 2040?
By 2040, UK garages will be transformed. Discover what successful independent workshops will look like in an EV-dominated future.
What will independent garages look like in 2040 - future of automotive repair
What Will Independent Garages Look Like in 2040?
By 2040, the UK vehicle fleet is expected to be dominated by electric and zero-emission vehicles. Internal combustion cars will still exist, but they will represent a much smaller and increasingly niche share of vehicles on the road.
Independent garages that survive and thrive will look very different from traditional engine-focused workshops. Diagnostics, software, calibration, battery health checks, high-voltage safety and electrical repairs will form the core of daily work.
The Future
Independent garages are not disappearing — they are evolving. The businesses that adapt early will help define what the sector looks like in 2040 and beyond.
The 2040 Vehicle Fleet: What to Expect
By 2040, most credible forecasts suggest 70-85% of UK vehicles will be battery electric, with the remainder split between plug-in hybrids, hydrogen and a declining ICE segment.
| Vehicle Type | Estimated Share | Repair Profile |
|---|---|---|
| Battery Electric (BEV) | 70-80% | HV systems, battery diagnostics, thermal management, software |
| Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) | 5-10% | Dual powertrain - both ICE and EV skills needed |
| Hydrogen Fuel Cell | 2-5% | Specialist, mainly commercial vehicles |
| Petrol and Diesel (ICE) | 5-15% | Niche, older vehicles, enthusiast market |
Key implication: Garages focusing almost entirely on ICE repairs will struggle due to reduced volume. Those with EV and electrical capability will dominate.
Source: UK Government - Road to Zero Strategy
What Work Will Garages Be Doing in 2040?
Routine mechanical work will not disappear. Suspension, steering, tyres, brakes, HVAC systems and body-related repairs will remain essential, regardless of powertrain.
The difference is that fewer jobs will revolve around engines, fuel systems and exhausts.
| Work Type | 2026 Volume | 2040 Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Tyres and alignment | High | Very High (EVs heavier, more wear) |
| Brakes and fluid servicing | High | Moderate-High (regen reduces wear but not eliminated) |
| Suspension and steering | High | High (unchanged, possibly increased due to weight) |
| Battery diagnostics | Low | Very High (core EV service) |
| HV system repairs | Very Low | High (requires certification) |
| Software and calibration | Low | Very High (ADAS, OTA updates, diagnostics) |
| Air-con and HVAC | Moderate | Moderate (no change in principle) |
| Engine servicing | Very High | Low-Moderate (niche, older vehicles) |
| Exhaust systems | High | Very Low (ICE only, declining fleet) |
| Fuel system repairs | Moderate | Low (ICE only, specialist work) |
The Skillset Shift
Successful 2040 garages will be as comfortable with diagnostic software and battery management systems as 2026 garages are with timing belts and exhausts.
What Will a Typical 2040 Independent Garage Look Like?
Let's paint a picture of a thriving independent garage in 2040:
Workshop Evolution: 2026 vs 2040
2026 Independent Garage 🔧 Engine diagnostics, oil changes, timing belts, exhausts, brakes, tyres, MOTs. Some EV awareness but mostly ICE-focused.
2040 Independent Garage ⚡ Battery health checks, HV diagnostics, ADAS calibration, software updates, thermal systems, tyres, brakes, MOTs. Some specialist ICE work.
Physical Workshop Changes
- High-voltage isolation equipment and safety zones
- Advanced diagnostic tools for multiple EV platforms
- ADAS calibration bays with target boards and laser alignment
- Fewer engine hoists, more electronic test equipment
- Software licensing for OEM diagnostic systems
- Electric vehicle lifts designed for battery pack access
Staff Skillsets
- IMI Level 2-3 HV certification as standard
- Electrical and electronics expertise more valuable than mechanical
- Software troubleshooting and network diagnostics (CAN, LIN, Ethernet)
- Continuous training as vehicle technology updates frequently
- Hybrid skills - maintain ICE capability for niche/enthusiast work
Business Model
- Higher diagnostic fees reflecting skill level and equipment costs
- Partnerships with battery specialists for complex pack repairs
- Subscription revenue from software and calibration services
- Extended warranties and service plans for EV customers
- Specialist niche services (e.g., classic ICE restoration, EV conversions)
Will There Be Room for ICE Specialists?
Yes, but it will be a niche market. By 2040, ICE vehicles will be:
- Older vehicles (15+ years) kept on the road by cost-conscious owners
- Classic and enthusiast cars
- Commercial vehicles in sectors slow to electrify
- Regional variations where EV adoption lagged
Some garages may choose to specialise in ICE repairs for this niche, similar to how classic car restoration shops operate today. This can be a viable strategy, but it requires accepting a smaller addressable market.
Volume Risk
Garages that remain purely ICE-focused will face declining volumes. Specialisation works only if the market is deep enough to sustain the business.
Regional Differences in 2040
Not all parts of the UK will transition at the same pace:
| Region Type | EV Adoption | Garage Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Major cities (London, Manchester, etc.) | Very High (80%+) | Must be EV-capable to survive |
| Urban areas | High (70-80%) | EV skills essential, some ICE work remains |
| Suburban areas | Moderate-High (60-75%) | Balanced ICE/EV capability |
| Rural areas | Moderate (50-65%) | ICE repairs viable longer, but still need EV skills |
Garages in rural or low-income areas may have a longer runway for ICE work, but even they will need some EV capability by 2040.
What Independent Garages Must Do Now
The businesses that thrive in 2040 are the ones taking action today:
- ✅ Start EV training now - Even basic Level 1-2 certification prepares your team
- ✅ Invest in diagnostics - Modern diagnostic tools work on ICE and EV vehicles
- ✅ Build partnerships - Collaborate with EV specialists for complex work
- ✅ Market your evolving capability - Let customers know you're EV-ready
- ✅ Streamline operations - Garage management software frees time and budget for training and tooling
- ✅ Plan financially - Budget for training, tools and certification over 5-10 years
- ✅ Stay informed - Join trade bodies, attend industry events, network with other garages
The garages that wait until 2035 to start this process will be too late.
Related article: Will Independent Garages Survive the EV Transition?
The Bottom Line: Evolution, Not Extinction
Independent garages are not facing extinction, but they are facing transformation. The future belongs to workshops that:
- Embrace electrical and diagnostic expertise
- Layer EV skills onto existing mechanical competence
- Invest in training and tooling incrementally
- Adapt their business model for higher-skill, higher-value work
- Maintain some ICE capability for niche demand
By 2040, the most successful independent garages will be unrecognisable from 2026 — but they will still be independent, still be local, and still be essential to motorists.
The EV transition is not the end of the independent garage. It is the beginning of a new chapter.
Why Choose AutoChain
AutoChain is building the future of vehicle servicing today. Our network includes:
- ⚡ EV-ready garages with high-voltage certification
- 🔧 Experienced ICE specialists for traditional vehicles
- 📱 Digital service history for all vehicle types
- 💷 Transparent pricing without dealer premiums
Whether you drive an EV today or plan to in the future, AutoChain connects you with forward-thinking independent garages.
Find a garage near you or learn more about our vision.
Related Articles:
- Will Independent Garages Survive the EV Transition?
- What Maintenance and Repairs Do Electric Cars Need?
- EV Training for Independent Garages
- How Long Will Petrol and Diesel Repairs Still Be Needed?
- Will EV Repairs Be Controlled by Dealers?
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